LBC – Money Podcast Interview on Market Crashes & Bear Markets

“LBC MONEY PODCAST – Michael Wilson & David Buik talks to Gerald Ashley, the distinguished risk manager, writer & investment banker about market crashes and recessions over the last 35 years – fascinating!”

Click on the latest Episode “Can you spot a market crash coming”

What I talk about these days

As the world of live gatherings is at last recovering and gathering pace (Not least because I sense people are bored rigid with Zoom calls etc) I thought I would outline the current speaking topics that I’m doing.

I continue to do a variety of talks on the differences between Risk and Uncertainty, and allied to this the dangers of relying only on past “Big” data. I look at why models fail, and always will. The dangers of seeing Risk as a bounded game with fixed rules that can be “won”. I particularly dislike the Life is Chess/Poker fallacy – nothing could be further from the truth.

I also talk about what I called the E’s of decision making and risk taking; namely punctuated Equilibrium, Emergence and Entanglement. All of these are rooted in Complexity science and Evolutionary theory. Business is not a machine but an organism, and I try to give real life examples of all these elements.

One other area I’m very interested in is innovation and creativity. The standard business models of Command and Control and a fanatical desire to “control costs” are the enemies of new ideas, products and services. I try to explain how outward looking and enquiring business models are the only proven way to grow businesses and generate wealth.

As well as speaking a great deal on these topics, I should really try and write this blog more frequently – but don’t hold your breath (Speaking is now once again swallowing a lot of my time)

Two Speed World – Physics and Business

In 2010 Terry Lloyd and I wrote a book called Two Speed World in which we set out to examine the two modes of change….incremental and disruptive, in the world of business and finance

A recent article here looks at the issues from a physics standpoint.

In particular I was struck by this opening paragraph in the article (which is well worth reading)

“In The Structure of Scientific Revolutions, the philosopher of science Thomas Kuhn observed that scientists spend long periods taking small steps. They pose and solve puzzles while collectively interpreting all data within a fixed worldview or theoretical framework, which Kuhn called a paradigm. Sooner or later, though, facts crop up that clash with the reigning paradigm. Crisis ensues. The scientists wring their hands, reexamine their assumptions and eventually make a revolutionary shift to a new paradigm, a radically different and truer understanding of nature. Then incremental progress resumes.”

Book Recommendations From the Podcast

At the end of each episode of the Ross & Ashley podcast we offer book recommendations

Here is a summary after our first three episodes

The Silk Roads by Peter Frankopan

Algorithms to Live By by Brian Christian & Tom Griffiths

Why Most Things Fail by Paul Omrerod

Raven Rock The Story of the U.S. Government’s Secret Plan to Save Itself – While the Rest of Us Die by Garrett Graff

Driving the Silk Road: Halfway Across the World in a Bentley S1 by Doug McWilliams

Checkmate in Berlin: The Cold War Showdown That Shaped the Modern World by Giles Milton

Prisoners of Geography: Ten Maps That Tell You Everything You Need To Know About Global Politics by Tim Marshall

Nathaniel’s Nutmeg: Or, the True and Incredible Adventures of the Spice Trader Who Changed the Course of History by Giles Milton

For more information about our Podcasts go to Brigadoon Radio listings at