Gerald Ashley on Uncertainty
Above is a link to a podcast I did recently with Christian Hunt of The Human Risk Podcast about uncertainty, where I slide in comments on American Wrestling, Sky Diving, Rory Sutherland and Keith Richards no less.

Here are a few blogs I regularly read and find interesting

Accidental behavioural economist in search of wisdom. Uses insights from (behavioural) economics in organization development.                                                                                Koen Smets

Human Risk is a Behavioural Science-led Consultancy & Training company delivering BeSci for Risk, Compliance, Conduct & Ethics. Posts by Founder Christian Hunt       Human Risk Blog

Occasional thoughts from Michael Wilson – Veteran Business & Economics Broadcaster

Michael Wilson

 

 

View at Medium.com

View at Medium.com

The past few weeks have been an ideal opportunity to re-read some books.

I have particularly enjoyed these and think you might as well.

• Why Most Things Fail – Evolution, Extinction and Economics by Paul Ormerod
• Innumeracy -Mathematical Illiteracy and Its Consequences by John Allen Paulos
• A Short History of Financial Euphoria by John Kenneth Galbraith
• Phantoms in the Brain: Human Nature and the Architecture of the Mind by V.S. Ramachandran  and Sandra Blakeslee

https://www.specialistspeakers.com/?page_id=12588&video=756266

I have enjoyed these, I think you will as well

Books

Alchemy: The Surprising Power of Ideas That Don’t Make Sense By Rory Sutherland

Prisoners of Geography: Ten Maps That Tell You Everything You Need to Know About Global Politics by Tim Marshall

Range: How Generalists Triumph in a Specialized World by David Epstein

The Evolution of Everything: How New Ideas Emerge by Matt Ridley

Dancing by The Light of The Moon: Over to 250 poems, to read, relish and recite By Gyles Brandreth

The Inequality Paradox: How Capitalism Can Work for Everyone

Rebel Ideas: The Power of Diverse Thinking by Matthew Syed

 

It has been a few years since I have shared a stage with Rory Sutherland. He is a legend in advertising circles (He is Deputy Chairman of Ogilvy), a best selling author,a columnist at The Spectator and his TED talks have over 7 million hits! So its a great pleasure to have him involved in this next Decision Event. It will be huge fun and extremely informative.
Full information and booking details here:
https://www.eventbrite.co.uk/e/the-science-magic-of-making-better-decisions-tickets-83603804229

This is a fascinating short film looking at how through co-operation and by learning from repeated mistakes “agents” gradually create sophisticated strategies from very simple rules.
It is a useful way to think about evolution, how humans have and will continue to develop.

If you don’t know Gene Kranz’s Dictum – print this off, keep it and re-read from time to time
“Tough and Competent”

“Spaceflight will never tolerate carelessness, incapacity, and neglect. Somewhere, somehow, we screwed up. It could have been in design, build, or test. Whatever it was, we should have caught it. We were too gung ho about the schedule and we locked out all of the problems we saw each day in our work. Every element of the program was in trouble and so were we. The simulators were not working, Mission Control was behind in virtually every area, and the flight and test procedures changed daily. Nothing we did had any shelf life. Not one of us stood up and said, “Dammit, stop!” I don’t know what Thompson’s committee will find as the cause, but I know what I find. We are the cause! We were not ready! We did not do our job. We were rolling the dice, hoping that things would come together by launch day, when in our hearts we knew it would take a miracle. We were pushing the schedule and betting that the Cape would slip before we did.

From this day forward, Flight Control will be known by two words: “Tough” and “Competent”. Tough means we are forever accountable for what we do or what we fail to do. We will never again compromise our responsibilities. Every time we walk into Mission Control we will know what we stand for. Competent means we will never take anything for granted. We will never be found short in our knowledge and in our skills. Mission Control will be perfect. When you leave this meeting today you will go to your office and the first thing you will do there is to write “Tough and Competent” on your blackboards. It will never be erased. Each day when you enter the room these words will remind you of the price paid by Grissom, White, and Chaffee. These words are the price of admission to the ranks of Mission Control.”

It’s time for some reading suggestions for the summer months. Here are five that I think are very worthwhile.

Alchemy: The Surprising Power of Ideas That Don’t Make Sense. By Rory Sutherland

The Choice Factory: 25 behavioural biases that influence what we buy. By Richard Shotton

The Spy and the Traitor: The Greatest Espionage Story of the Cold War. By Ben MacIntyre

Eat Your Greens. By Wiemer Snijders

Diary of a Fund Manager. By David Miller

Tickets are now available below at:

https://www.eventbrite.co.uk/e/the-science-magic-of-making-better-decisions-tickets-62788588358