“LBC MONEY PODCAST – Michael Wilson & David Buik talks to Gerald Ashley, the distinguished risk manager, writer & investment banker about market crashes and recessions over the last 35 years – fascinating!”
As the world of live gatherings is at last recovering and gathering pace (Not least because I sense people are bored rigid with Zoom calls etc) I thought I would outline the current speaking topics that I’m doing.
I continue to do a variety of talks on the differences between Risk and Uncertainty, and allied to this the dangers of relying only on past “Big” data. I look at why models fail, and always will. The dangers of seeing Risk as a bounded game with fixed rules that can be “won”. I particularly dislike the Life is Chess/Poker fallacy – nothing could be further from the truth.
I also talk about what I called the E’s of decision making and risk taking; namely punctuated Equilibrium, Emergence and Entanglement. All of these are rooted in Complexity science and Evolutionary theory. Business is not a machine but an organism, and I try to give real life examples of all these elements.
One other area I’m very interested in is innovation and creativity. The standard business models of Command and Control and a fanatical desire to “control costs” are the enemies of new ideas, products and services. I try to explain how outward looking and enquiring business models are the only proven way to grow businesses and generate wealth.
As well as speaking a great deal on these topics, I should really try and write this blog more frequently – but don’t hold your breath (Speaking is now once again swallowing a lot of my time)
In particular I was struck by this opening paragraph in the article (which is well worth reading)
“In The Structure of Scientific Revolutions, the philosopher of science Thomas Kuhn observed that scientists spend long periods taking small steps. They pose and solve puzzles while collectively interpreting all data within a fixed worldview or theoretical framework, which Kuhn called a paradigm. Sooner or later, though, facts crop up that clash with the reigning paradigm. Crisis ensues. The scientists wring their hands, reexamine their assumptions and eventually make a revolutionary shift to a new paradigm, a radically different and truer understanding of nature. Then incremental progress resumes.”
Back in March 2017 I wrote this piece about the “over-connected” world. Given the current gyrations in supply chains, and the increasing worries about networks and their resilience I thought it worth re-publishing
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