“LBC MONEY PODCAST – Michael Wilson & David Buik talks to Gerald Ashley, the distinguished risk manager, writer & investment banker about market crashes and recessions over the last 35 years – fascinating!”
https://www.lbc.co.uk/news/money-david-buick-michael-wilson-global-podcast/
Click on the latest Episode “Can you spot a market crash coming”
As the world of live gatherings is at last recovering and gathering pace (Not least because I sense people are bored rigid with Zoom calls etc) I thought I would outline the current speaking topics that I’m doing.
I continue to do a variety of talks on the differences between Risk and Uncertainty, and allied to this the dangers of relying only on past “Big” data. I look at why models fail, and always will. The dangers of seeing Risk as a bounded game with fixed rules that can be “won”. I particularly dislike the Life is Chess/Poker fallacy – nothing could be further from the truth.
I also talk about what I called the E’s of decision making and risk taking; namely punctuated Equilibrium, Emergence and Entanglement. All of these are rooted in Complexity science and Evolutionary theory. Business is not a machine but an organism, and I try to give real life examples of all these elements.
One other area I’m very interested in is innovation and creativity. The standard business models of Command and Control and a fanatical desire to “control costs” are the enemies of new ideas, products and services. I try to explain how outward looking and enquiring business models are the only proven way to grow businesses and generate wealth.
As well as speaking a great deal on these topics, I should really try and write this blog more frequently – but don’t hold your breath (Speaking is now once again swallowing a lot of my time)
The “Risk of avoiding Risk” is neatly shown in this cartoon. Everything in life is dynamic, not static.
In 2010 Terry Lloyd and I wrote a book called Two Speed World in which we set out to examine the two modes of change….incremental and disruptive, in the world of business and finance
A recent article here looks at the issues from a physics standpoint.
In particular I was struck by this opening paragraph in the article (which is well worth reading)
“In The Structure of Scientific Revolutions, the philosopher of science Thomas Kuhn observed that scientists spend long periods taking small steps. They pose and solve puzzles while collectively interpreting all data within a fixed worldview or theoretical framework, which Kuhn called a paradigm. Sooner or later, though, facts crop up that clash with the reigning paradigm. Crisis ensues. The scientists wring their hands, reexamine their assumptions and eventually make a revolutionary shift to a new paradigm, a radically different and truer understanding of nature. Then incremental progress resumes.”
At the end of each episode of the Ross & Ashley podcast we offer book recommendations
Here is a summary after our first three episodes
The Silk Roads by Peter Frankopan https://www.amazon.co.uk/Silk-Roads-New-History-World/dp/1408839997/
Algorithms to Live By by Brian Christian & Tom Griffiths https://www.amazon.co.uk/Algorithms-Live-Computer-Science-Decisions/dp/0007547994/
Why Most Things Fail by Paul Omrerod https://www.amazon.co.uk/Why-Most-Things-Fail-Avoid/dp/0571220134/
Raven Rock The Story of the U.S. Government’s Secret Plan to Save Itself – While the Rest of Us Die by Garrett Graff https://www.amazon.co.uk/Raven-Rock-Governments-Secret-Itself-While/dp/1476735425/
Driving the Silk Road: Halfway Across the World in a Bentley S1 by Doug McWilliams https://www.amazon.co.uk/Driving-Silk-Road-Halfway-Bentley/dp/1912892715/
Checkmate in Berlin: The Cold War Showdown That Shaped the Modern World by Giles Milton https://www.amazon.co.uk/Checkmate-Berlin-First-Battle-Cold/dp/1529393159/
Prisoners of Geography: Ten Maps That Tell You Everything You Need To Know About Global Politics by Tim Marshall https://www.amazon.co.uk/Prisoners-Geography-Everything-Global-Politics/dp/1783962437/
Nathaniel’s Nutmeg: Or, the True and Incredible Adventures of the Spice Trader Who Changed the Course of History by Giles Milton https://www.amazon.co.uk/Nathaniels-Nutmeg-Incredible-Adventures-Changed/dp/1250069289/
For more information about our Podcasts go to Brigadoon Radio listings at https://open.spotify.com/show/508cIDKvHZiyhmYhQcqdW1
A Load BS – The Behavioral Science Podcast
Part One of an interview I did on foraging birds and model mania (amongst other things.
https://aloadofbs.substack.com/p/gerald-ashley-on-risk-and-uncertainty
It’s time I acknowledged some other bloggers, all of whom provide interesting and thoughtful material. I can strongly recommend each of these.
David Miller – Diary of a Fund Manager
Christian Hunt – The Human Risk Blog
https://www.human-risk.com/blog
Daniel Ross – A Load of BS
Back in March 2017 I wrote this piece about the “over-connected” world. Given the current gyrations in supply chains, and the increasing worries about networks and their resilience I thought it worth re-publishing
See the link to the orginal article.
I have a chat with host Jonathan Gabby about Fraud, Deception and Self Deception
This cartoon neatly illustrates one of the problems with regulation.
We all tend to “game the system”
Gerald Ashley 
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