Some Russell Ackoff Quotes

For me Russell Ackoff (1919-2009) is one of the greatest thinkers regarding decision making, and on how to make organisations run more effectively.

Ackoff may be considered one of the founders of Systems Thinking and here are some quotes that will give you a flavour of his thinking.

“We have also come to realise that no problem ever exists in complete isolation. Every problem interacts with every other problem and is therefore part of a set of interrelated problems, a system of problems. Furthermore, solutions to most problems produce other problems; for example, buying a car may solve a transportation problem but it may also create a need for a garage, a financial problem, a maintenance problem, and conflict among family members for its use.”

“The basic managerial idea introduced by systems thinking, is that to manage a system effectively, you might focus on the interactions of the parts rather than their behaviour taken separately.”

“Successful problem solving requires finding the right solution to the right problem. We fail more often because we solve the wrong problem than because we get the wrong solution to the right problem.”

“The more efficient you are at doing the wrong thing, the wronger you become. It is much better to do the right thing wronger than the wrong thing righter. If you do the right thing wrong and correct it, you get better.”

This book that was published just after his death in an excellent introduction and guide to Systems Thinking

Six Books for Christmas

The Last Journey of William Huskisson by Simon Garfield

Yong Stalin by Simon Sebag Montefiore

The Flavour Thesaurus by Niki Segnit

Castles of Steel by Robert K. Massie

Frank Lloyd Wright: American Master by Kathryn Smith & Alan Weintraub

Londongrad: From Russia with Cash by Mark Hollingsworth & Stewart Lansley

Wide or Deep?

Every Spring, from the Rocky mountains in Colorado and Wyoming, the melting snow feeds the River Platte down into Nebraska, where earlier settlers described it as “a mile wide and an inch deep”. Not entirely accurate but nonetheless a vivid image. Nowadays the description is often used as a disparaging remark of someone’s knowledge. I have certainly heard it used about a lot of journalists. We might term this as a form of horizontal learning. Fair or not?

Equally a similar opposite term is often used about academics, in that they know “more and more about less and less”.  A form of an inch wide and a mile deep, so now a vertical format rather than a horizontal one. True or brutal?

One could argue that both journalists and academics are fitting a type or pattern of behaviour and activity that makes sense for their respective professions. There are of course some specialist journalists, and also academics that adopt a multi-disciplinary approach. So, which is best?

Ideally some of both perhaps? This may be the allure of big data and machine learning that seems to create the best of both worlds. Increasingly the immensely powerful combination of deep data and highly powerful computing is generating far more “results”. It is clearly helping a wide field of activities from medical diagnosis to more efficient use of networks, but to my mind it will always have one major constraint – it seems unlikely to ever really generate creativity.

The world seems enamoured by various party tricks that can be done by software such as ChatGPT (for example it would be v easy to turn this blog into Shakespeare Sonnets, or perhaps rewrite it in the style of a Dickens novel!). But this is not being creative, its merely fantastic machine learning routines that slice and dice past data into existing patterns – so it is both clever but also extremely stupid, or perhaps more fairly blind and unknowing.

So can we expect future machines and software to develop “artificial creativity”? My sense is certainly not now, and who knows if ever? This is why I cavil against the term Artificial Intelligence, because to be truly “intelligent” I think it has to demonstrate creativity, no be just gigantic pattern seeking and puzzle solving machines.

Where does this lead us as humans in terms of being creative and dare one suggest in being able to make better decisions? I think it is instructive that most of us however modest or fantastic our future success, we normally start learning more and more about something. (Of course, this could be a physical skill or talent not just pure mental work). Then perhaps depending on our interest and work rate we climb up a thin knowledge path and then increasingly want to branch out to look at other fields, so perhaps our creativity comes from building this letter “T” of a narrow start that blossoms out into wider ideas.

Here we are combining the vertical and horizontal approaches, and from this we start to make more creative ideas and plans, and it is this that is keeping us ahead of the data crunching machines and their dual world of clever/stupid answers. Some will argue that eventually the computing power will genuinely generate creativity – but I for one remain a little sceptical.

Pasteur, Ingvar & Cicero – Summoning Up the Future?

In an 1854 lecture at the University of Lille, French chemist and microbiologist Louis Pasteur famously remarked that, “In the fields of observation chance favours only the prepared mind.” In a way pretty obvious? After all, if you haven’t done any groundwork what are the chances that you will even recognise an opportunity? I think Pasteur was encouraging us to keep slogging away and that when opportunity strikes, we will be ready, and hopefully willing and able, as well. So, no great insight but it perhaps hints that a lot of new ideas and breakthroughs occur because of serendipity and that most annoyingly slippery concept – pure chance. And the best thing we can do is to be well placed to take advantage of it, if it comes our way.

The late Professor David Ingvar a Swedish neurobiologist found that a specific area of the brain, the frontal/prefrontal cortex, handled behaviour and knowledge along a timeline and it also handled action plans for future behaviour. Ingvar’s research demonstrated that damage in that area of the brain is found to result in an inability to foresee the consequences of one’s future behaviour. He concluded that the brain is ‘hardwired’ to do this and that plans are created instinctively every moment of our lives; planning for the immediate future, that day, that week and even years ahead.

As these plans can be retained and recalled, Ingvar called them ‘memories of the future ‘.
We can illustrate this with a simple example of personal experience which we have all come across. Imagine you are taking up a new interest or perhaps sport, let’s say skiing. Before the new interest our minds had no particular focus or thoughts on the topic – but now suddenly we find there seems to be lots of magazine articles, perhaps special sales offers on ski equipment, and we notice more and more people seem to be talking about skiing! A coincidence or something weird is going on? In fact, it’s neither, for as Ingvar’s research demonstrated we are now tuning our minds to potential future pathways and outcomes – in this case skiing. As a result, we are building a memory of the future that centres around future skiing trips and adventures.

But perhaps we can go one step further and will things in the future? Many people seem to be enamoured of the idea that we can “manifest” the future, and somehow “cosmically attract” success to ourselves. This seems a rather far fetched if not totally absurd idea but is much in vogue with luminaries such as Oprah Winfrey and her assertion that “It’s true, the way you think creates reality for yourself”. Unfortunately for the Queen of daytime tv, the Roman philosopher Cicero quickly punctures this. He points out the inconsistency of divining something that in truth is based on pure chance or old friend good luck. For him it’s all superstition and illogical, and he wrote about this in 44BC! Same old stuff always seems to be about and has been refuted over and over.

So, what to do? Work hard and keep weather eye, a la Pasteur, for that next opening or chance meeting, or perhaps as Ingvar demonstrated, recognise we intuitively focus our brains towards information on topics that we find interesting; or accept Cicero’s advice to seek expert advice when faced with challenges and difficulties, and that wishful thinking won’t make things happen.

If none of the above offers you sufficient guidance hope or comfort, we can all fall back on the great advice and catch phrase of the late great Irish Comedian Dave Allen, “May your god go with you!”

Geo-Political Risk

One of my main areas of interest is financial risk and in particular how markets and their participants behave.

To have any serious understanding of this it is also necessary to have an idea of the forces that act on markets, of which geo-politics is a major factor. To that end I have found these three books both fascinating and illuminating.

The Power of Geography: Ten Maps that Reveal the Future of Our World by Tim Marshall

Material World: A Substantial Story of Our Past and Future by Ed Conway

End Times: Elites, Counter-Elites and the Path of Political Disintegration by Peter Turchin

Six Books for Summer

Some suggestions for holiday reading

The Lunar Men: The Friends Who Made the Future 1730-1810

Hell’s Cartel: IG Farben and the Making of Hitler’s War Machine

The Master and His Emissary: The Divided Brain and the Making of the Western World 

Samuel Pepys: The Unequalled Self

Civilisation – The West and the Rest

The Spy Who Disappeared: Diary of a Secret Mission to Russian Central Asia in 1918

At Abbey Road with Human Risk

Recently recorded with Rory Sutherland and Paul Craven for Christian Hunt and his Human Risk podcast. Needless to say we couldn’t resist the chance to do some photographs!

The podcast will be published sometime in mid June – links will follow.

In the meantime this is how Christian describes the experience:

“Take some creative minds & put them in a creative place. What could possibly go wrong? Answer: lots! But that’s the whole point.

Coming soon are the 249th and 250th episodes of the Human Risk podcast, with three guests who have all been on the show before. But never together. So, last week we descended on Abbey Road Studios to record two magical discussions that you’ll be able to hear very soon…

And if you’re wondering how on earth I kept order when Rory SutherlandGerald Ashley &  Paul Craven were given microphones and free reign to talk, I didn’t! I just ‘𝘭𝘦𝘵 𝘪𝘵 𝘣𝘦’. What the recording captured were some fabulous BeSci insights from three wonderful minds.

Prepare to be amused, astonished and above all enlightened.”