The “Risk of avoiding Risk” is neatly shown in this cartoon. Everything in life is dynamic, not static.

In 2010 Terry Lloyd and I wrote a book called Two Speed World in which we set out to examine the two modes of change….incremental and disruptive, in the world of business and finance

A recent article here looks at the issues from a physics standpoint.

https://www.quantamagazine.org/crisis-in-particle-physics-forces-a-rethink-of-what-is-natural-20220301/

In particular I was struck by this opening paragraph in the article (which is well worth reading)

“In The Structure of Scientific Revolutions, the philosopher of science Thomas Kuhn observed that scientists spend long periods taking small steps. They pose and solve puzzles while collectively interpreting all data within a fixed worldview or theoretical framework, which Kuhn called a paradigm. Sooner or later, though, facts crop up that clash with the reigning paradigm. Crisis ensues. The scientists wring their hands, reexamine their assumptions and eventually make a revolutionary shift to a new paradigm, a radically different and truer understanding of nature. Then incremental progress resumes.”

At the end of each episode of the Ross & Ashley podcast we offer book recommendations

Here is a summary after our first three episodes

The Silk Roads by Peter Frankopan https://www.amazon.co.uk/Silk-Roads-New-History-World/dp/1408839997/

Algorithms to Live By by Brian Christian & Tom Griffiths https://www.amazon.co.uk/Algorithms-Live-Computer-Science-Decisions/dp/0007547994/

Why Most Things Fail by Paul Omrerod https://www.amazon.co.uk/Why-Most-Things-Fail-Avoid/dp/0571220134/

Raven Rock The Story of the U.S. Government’s Secret Plan to Save Itself – While the Rest of Us Die by Garrett Graff https://www.amazon.co.uk/Raven-Rock-Governments-Secret-Itself-While/dp/1476735425/

Driving the Silk Road: Halfway Across the World in a Bentley S1 by Doug McWilliams https://www.amazon.co.uk/Driving-Silk-Road-Halfway-Bentley/dp/1912892715/

Checkmate in Berlin: The Cold War Showdown That Shaped the Modern World by Giles Milton https://www.amazon.co.uk/Checkmate-Berlin-First-Battle-Cold/dp/1529393159/

Prisoners of Geography: Ten Maps That Tell You Everything You Need To Know About Global Politics by Tim Marshall https://www.amazon.co.uk/Prisoners-Geography-Everything-Global-Politics/dp/1783962437/

Nathaniel’s Nutmeg: Or, the True and Incredible Adventures of the Spice Trader Who Changed the Course of History by Giles Milton https://www.amazon.co.uk/Nathaniels-Nutmeg-Incredible-Adventures-Changed/dp/1250069289/

For more information about our Podcasts go to Brigadoon Radio listings at https://open.spotify.com/show/508cIDKvHZiyhmYhQcqdW1

A Load BS – The Behavioral Science Podcast

Part One of an interview I did on foraging birds and model mania (amongst other things.

https://aloadofbs.substack.com/p/gerald-ashley-on-risk-and-uncertainty

It’s time I acknowledged some other bloggers, all of whom provide interesting and thoughtful material. I can strongly recommend each of these.

Christian Hunt – The Human Risk Blog

https://www.human-risk.com/blog

Daniel Ross – A Load of BS

https://aloadofbs.substack.com/

Back in March 2017 I wrote this piece about the “over-connected” world. Given the current gyrations in supply chains, and the increasing worries about networks and their resilience I thought it worth re-publishing

See the link to the orginal article.

I have a chat with host Jonathan Gabby about Fraud, Deception and Self Deception

https://www.buzzsprout.com/1083152/8831793=

This cartoon neatly illustrates one of the problems with regulation.

We all tend to “game the system”

Here is Part Two of the Podcast with Christian Hunt of Human Risk

https://www.podpage.com/the-human-risk-podcast/paul-craven-gerald-ashley-on-context-consequences-changeability/

A new Podcast, again hosted by Christian Hunt of Human Risk.

This time I join up with the excellent Paul Craven to discuss Statistics, Spreadsheets & Scam Artists.

Here is the link https://www.podpage.com/the-human-risk-podcast/gerald-ashley-paul-craven-on-statistics-spreadsheets-scam-artists/